But where has been the love for Jay Bruce? The 29-year-old right fielder is having a major rebound year. He leads all major league outfielders with 58 runs batted in and ranks fourth overall out of all major league hitters. His monstrous ISO of .302 is second third-best among qualifying outfielders with at least 200 plate appearances, just behind Duvall and St. Louis Cardinals' Brandon Moss.
Even though Duvall has him beat in the ISO and home run categories, Bruce tops his teammate in other advanced statistical categories. His wOBA of .375 tops Duvall's .358. Bruce's wRC+ of 134 bests Duvall's 122. Just to add more icing to the cake, Bruce leads the Reds in runs scored with 44 (three more than Cozart).
All of the numbers are significant improvements from last season, and some are on pace to be career highs for the lefty. Bruce is not just having a bounce-back season, however. In fact, he is performing astronomically better than he was in the past two seasons. Just take a look at this graph from FanGraphs showing Bruce's season wOBA throughout his career.
After an abysmal 2014 season with a wOBA of .288, the average began to rise steadily after 2015 to the point where it has dramatically increased to where it is now at .375. So what could be the culprit of this?
Certainly we would have to factor in that Bruce is striking out far less. From 2014 to 2015, his K% has dropped from 27.3% to 22.3% and his SwStr% fell from 13.3% to 11.1%. These trends have also carried over into the 2016 season where his K% and SwStr% stand at 20.9% and 10.8%, respectively.
Bruce's propensity to swing outside of the strike zone has dipped over the past couple seasons. His O-Swing% has fallen from 33.1% to 28.2% from 2014 up until this season thus far.
It is obviously wonderful to see a guy who was not too long ago one of the top sluggers in the National League rekindle the magic he had at the plate back then. For the more statistic-driven fan, the sight of the elevation of wOBA is salivating. However for the average fan, the fact that Bruce has regained his 30-homer power stroke is just as juicy.
With his 17 taters as we reach ever closer to the All Star Break, Bruce is well on his way to eclipsing his fourth 30-home run season of his career. Bruce clubbed his 17th bomb yesterday against the San Diego Padres as shown in this clip:
Last season, Bruce did not hit his 17th home run until July 29, so he is about a month ahead of his 2015 pace. His HR/FB rate is at 20%, which for a good home run hitter like Bruce is where it should be. Last year that rate was 13.3%, which was above average, but not elite like the ratios Bruce posted during his 30 home run seasons that were in the 15–20% range.
The increase in the HR/FB rate is probably due to the increase in average batted ball distance and average home run distance this year. According to BaseballSavant, in 2015 Bruce's average batted ball distance was 229 feet and his average home run distance was 388 feet. This season so far Bruce's average batted ball distance is up to 238 feet and his average home run distance is up to 402 feet. So the fly balls are definitely traveling farther off of Bruce's bat in 2016.
Bruce is also hitting the ball harder than ever in his career with a Hard% of 39.8%. He is also hitting more line drives this season (LD% of 23.3%) than last season (LD% of 18.7%).
Not to mention, Bruce is demolishing sinkers this time around, an effective pitch for right handed pitchers to get lefties to chase out of the zone or roll over for a Sunday hopper. When examining Bruce's standardized run linear weight values, his wSF/C stands at 1.30. More impressive is the difference between Bruce's 2015 and 2016 wSF/C. In 2015 the rate was -2.43. That is a whopping difference of +3.37 runs!
In addition to his mashing of sinking fastballs, Bruce has handle fastballs as a whole quite well. He has a wFB/C of 1.26, which has increased nearly a run and a half more from last year. All of these factors above are contributing to an augmented batting average this season for Bruce (.279).
So everything I just mentioned supports the notion that Bruce's offensive prowess has returned. But of course the title of this article states that Bruce is not only back, but also improved. Well lets dive right into it.
For starters, Bruce is hitting much better against left-handed pitching this year. Actually, he is hitting against lefties so well that he is doing it better than against righties. So far this season Bruce is sporting a solid .282 average against lefties, which is 53 points higher than his average against lefties last season. Against righties Bruce is batting a slightly lower average of .272. The majority of his power does come off of righties, and despite the limited number of plate appearances against lefties it is encouraging to see some improvement in that department.
The biggest reason why Bruce has been able to take advantage of left handers this season is his ability to hit pitches breaking away from him. He owns a wSL/C of 1.87 and a wCT/C of 1.62.
Aside from his platoon splits, Bruce has been a menace on the road in 2016. Bruce is batting a robust .320 away from Cincinnati this season, compared to his .217 road average a year ago. His is also striking out less when traveling (K% of 16.3) and has a higher ISO (.312) than at home.
I am not entirely sure what could be the cause of this. I checked the Park Factors according to ESPN.com of each of the road stadiums the Reds have played in so far this season and with the exception of a pair of series at Coors Field and Progressive Field, the team has not played in many favorable park effects. This then bodes well for his stellar performance on the road as well as his excellent HR/FB rate mentioned earlier. No matter what, his success outside his home ballpark now complements his gaudy power numbers at Cincinnati.
Shifts took a major tole on Bruce's offensive production in 2015. He only hit to the tune of .177 against ground balls that year, so the shift monster without a doubt gobbled up some base hits from Bruce. That clip has jumped up to .227, which in return has increased is average against the shift by 10 points to .272. In order to combat the shift, Bruce has made slight alterations to his approach at the plate this season. He has been driving the ball more up the middle in 2016, as his Cent% has grown from 30.4% to 38.4%.
With Bruce not only reverting back to offensive juggernaut ways, but also adding more to his bag of tricks the Reds have a big-time bopper in the clean up spot of the order to rack up runs and to complement the bats of Votto and Duvall. More importantly, Reds general manager Dick Williams now has a more balanced slugger that he can dangle in front of the mouths of the other major league general managers. Bruce will be one of the top commodities as the trade deadline creeps closer. He will be a tantalizing piece for teams with playoff aspirations to plug into the middle of their lineups. Especially with Bruce's unbelievable Clutch score of 1.83 teams, Williams' cell phone will be blowing up with calls from other teams. But at the moment, the Reds are just enjoying reaping the benefits of their right fielder's thunderous bat.
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