If there was a song that epitomized this offense, it would have to be "Bye Bye Birdie." Baltimore leads the league in long balls with 104 and in ISO with a stellar mark of .196. The Oriole sluggers have certainly benefited from the hitter-heaven confines of Camden Yards, however they have dispersed their power production evenly thus far. In fact, Baltimore has hit the same amount of home runs on the road (52) than at home (52). Not to mention, the Orioles' lineup has hit for a better ISO away (.206) than in Baltimore (.187).
The trio of Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis have led the hit parade for the Orioles, demolishing 53 home runs, driving in 132 RBI and scoring 135 runs. What might be the most impressive attribute of this juggernaut of an offense is that fact that they have been able to succeed despite their star centerfielder Adam Jones struggling out of the gate.
Through March and April Jones hit a meager .224 with only one dinger (five XBH in total) and seven RBI. His strikeout rate of 20.3% was a little more than a point higher than his career average. His ISO stood at a poor .104.
In May, Jones cut back a little bit on the strike outs and batted an improved .241, coupled with four homers and 16 RBI. Jones actually made an alteration to his approach in that he tried pushing the baseball the other way more. His Oppo% from March and April to May jumped from 13.5% to 22.7%.
However, probably the most significant change in Jones' game was made by manager Buck Showalter on May 27 when he shifted Jones into the leadoff spot. It was the first time the 30-year-old San Diego native hit leadoff in six years. Since then, Jones' offense has taken off with a major resurgence in the power department. In that span, Jones has seen his ISO increase to a gaudy .318 with 8 taters four doubles. His strikeout rate has fallen down to 16.5% as he collected 21 RBI while hitting .284.
While the stats above prove that the shift to the leadoff position has certainly sparked some life in Jones' bat, a closer look into the numbers show that batting at the top spot of the lineup is not the reason for his offensive outburst.
We would think now that Jones is batting leadoff he would see more strikes, specifically early on in the count, because starting pitchers would want to challenge Jones and get him out in order to establish a rhythm early on in the game. In addition, we would expect with the inflation in the number of strikes Jones would be more aggressive at the plate because he would be getting more quality pitches to hit early in the count.
Jones has with out a doubt seen more first strike pitches as his F-Strike% has grown from 63.5% to 71.1% since May 27. At the same time, pitchers overall have not been as assertive as we would have expected in terms of throwing strikes. Jones' Zone% since becoming the team's leadoff hitter has decreased from 46.3% to 41.2%.
Even though he is seeing more first-pitch strikes, Jones' Swing% during 0–0 counts have been mostly average. According to BaseballSavant, Jones has only swung at 47.6% of the first pitches he has seen leading off a game. This rate has remained almost the same in the innings after the first inning. He is also hitting poorly on the first pitch of the at bat with a batting average of .182, which is very uncharacteristic compared to his batting average of .385 on the first pitch prior to hitting leadoff.
It is not until the second pitch where we notice Jones' Swing% rise. In the first inning, he swings at the second pitch at two thirds of the time and this rate remains just about the same in the innings after. Before he Showalter inserted Jones into the leadoff spot Jones hit very well in 0–1 and 1–0 counts, and this trend has continued since the lineup change as Jones is batting .400 in those counts, though pre-leadoff man Adam Jones was clubbing .467 in those counts.
So if in actuality Jones is not seeing more strikes coming his way, and he is not taking advantage of the surplus of first-strike pitches he is being served, and he has already been excelling at hitting the second pitch of the at bat, then what exactly has been the key to Jones' success at the dish as of late?
Well, there are in fact two keys that have led to the elevation of Jones' offensive output. The first is that Jones has been able to lay off pitches below and away and outside of the strike zone, particularly breaking balls.
Here is a heatmap from BrooksBaseball of Jones' percentages of whiffs per swing pre-lead off man:
As we can see, Jones was having some difficulties laying off those pitches in those locations. Now let's take a look at his percentages of whiffs per swing after he became the leadoff man:
There has definitely been some improvement in that department. It may seem as a minor tweak to Jones' game, but it has certainly paid dividends.
By being slightly more disciplined, Jones has been able to work into more favorable hitters counts instead of falling behind and trying to dig his way out of 0–2 or 1–2 holes.
A perfect example of this came on June 12 against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Roger Centre (unfortunately, I could not find a full video of this at bat, so I will give you guys the information the preceded the result of the at bat. Here is a link to the at bat on BaseballSavant to prove this actually occurred).
It was the top of the fifth inning with the Orioles trailing the Blue Jays 7–2. Jones was leading off against arguably Toronto's ace Aaron Sanchez. For the first pitch, Sanchez tossed a curveball underneath the strike zone below and away, Jones' chase spot. Jones did not bit and took the breaking pitch for a ball.
This was significant because for Sanchez's second pitch he threw a two seam fastball at the lower half of the strike zone for a strike. Because Jones laid off the curve, the count drew to 1–1 instead of 0–2, a far more comfortable count for Jones.
And with the next pitch, Jones did this:
Sanchez left the curveball up in the zone and Jones rightly punished it. With the patience against the curveball earlier in the at bat, Jones was able to enter a count that would warrant a better opportunity to receive a good pitch to rake. And this definitely has helped bolster his numbers in these counts. Jones now has two bombs in 1–1 counts since he became a leadoff hitter, whereas he had no home runs prior.
The other key is quite simple: Jones is taking what he is being given. With the drop in Zone% means the centerfielder is seeing more pitches outside the strike zone, and Jones has certainly taken notice. His outside swing percentage since moving up to the top of the lineup has ballooned from 39% to 44.3%.
More intriguing is how Jones' swing rate has shifted along the strike zone. Take a look at this heatmap of Jones pre-leadoff man from FanGraphs.
Now let's look at his heatmap once he started hitting leadoff. Jones has been waving away at those pitches that are mid-in as well as high and inside. And he has not been missing them, as extolled in his current Contact% heatmap.
Just take a gander at this blast off of Kansas City Royals' pitcher Chien-Ming Wang:
As the statistics above have shown, Adam Jones' improvements in the batter's box are the results his own modifications to his plate discipline and aggression, rather than to his ascent to the top spot in the Orioles' batting order. Regardless, this is a plus for Baltimore as they now have another hot bat in their already potent lineup that could use all of the fireworks it can get with the starting pitching troubles they are dealing with.
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