As a Yankee Clipper, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native showed some promise at the dish when he debuted with the club in August 19, 2010 season, which carried over into the 2011 season. Nuni played in a total 112 games that year, splitting time primarily at shortstop as the backup to the Yankee captain Derek Jeter and at third base as the replacement for the injury-plagued Alex Rodriguez. He posted a respectable .265 batting average and exhibited some decent pop with 25 extra-base hits (five dingers, 18 doubles and two triples). Equally as impressive was his presence on the base paths, as he swiped 22 bases while only being caught six times. However, his defensive output could not mirror his offensive output. Núñez committed a lofty 20 errors on the season – 14 at shortstop and six and third base.
Over the next two season, Núñez's professional career in the game of baseball fluctuated between the major and minor leagues with the Yankees, which made it difficult for us to gage his progressions offensively. He was ultimately traded to the Twins on April 7, 2014 for left-handed pitcher Miguel Sulbaran. During his first two years with his new organization, Núñez served as a utility man, playing in 72 games in each of those seasons. After Eduardo Escobar went down with a left groin injury in early May this season, Núñez was inserted into the lineup at shortstop. Since then, Núñez's offensive game has surged to the surprise of many.
Just ask Miami Marlins starting pitcher Adam Conley:
That was a titanic shot!! A third decker from a shortstop! Statcast measured that tater at 438.37 feet and exited at 107.71 miles per hour. Núñez has already set a career high in home runs with nine, and we still have a month of baseball to play before the All Star break. He is currently batting a robust .330, which is good for sixth-best in the majors and has a stellar ISO of .195. He is also on pace to set career highs in several other offensive categories such as doubles, runs batted in and runs scored.
When examining the more advanced metrics, Núñez is a far more productive player this year than last year. He is sporting a wOBA of .375, which is .047 points higher than 2015. His wRC+ has augmented 31 points from last year to where it now stands at 138 this year.
Núñez is vying for his first All Star nomination of his career and is proving to be the most fruitful bat in a Twins lineup that is starving for production. Minnesota currently ranks 27th in Major League Baseball with 226 runs scored and has a terrible Offensive Runs Above Average of -23.5.
But is Núñez's offensive outburst for real or fools gold? When diving deeper into his batted ball profile, it seems Núñez's scorching start will ultimately simmer as the season progresses.
His BABIP of .352 ranks in the top 25 of players with a minimum of 200 plate appearances. While Núñez's BABIP is up their with some of the best sluggers in the game, his current mark is not close to his career mark of .303 (according to FanGraphs) and nowhere near his career batting average of .276. There is no denying it, his batting average is due for some regression.
Núñez's line drive percentage stands at 16.1%, the same as last season and also below the league average of 21%. Since he hits more ground balls and fly balls, Núñez's batting average will more than likely dip since both of which typically go for less hits than line drives do. He is also benefiting from some luck thus far this season, as shown with this lead-off inside the parker against Tampa Bay Rays starting southpaw Matt Moore:
As for the power numbers, they seem to be legit at first glance. Right of the bat we notice Núñez's HR/FB ratio has skyrocketed this from 9.5% to 15%. His ground ball percentage has dropped 8.6 points and his fly ball percentage has increased by 8.6. And top that with the fact that he is hitting the ball harder this season – his Hard% jumped from 24.8% in 2015 to 27.3% this season – it would appear as if Núñez is hitting the ball with authority and in the air and out of the ballpark.
However, there are a couple of statistics that debunk Núñez's jolt in power. One, his infield fly ball percentage, albeit has declined over the past couple seasons, is above the league average at 15%. So he is definitely elevating the baseball, but on several occasions he is over elevating.
Two, Núñez's average exit velocity is only 90.7, which is about a tick, tick-and-a-half above the league average. Even though he might be hitting the ball harder thus far this season, the ball just does not seem to be jumping off the bat.
Three, he is making gradual strides to change his approach this season. Núñez has primarily pulled the ball throughout his career until this season where the numbers have shown that he is starting to drive the ball more towards the opposite field. His Pull% has dropped 4.4 points to 37.2% this season, while his Cent% and Oppo% have increased 0.4 and 4.0, respectively. The fact that Núñez is trying to hit the ball to the opposite field instead of pulling pitches will make it more challenging for him to go deep more often.
All in all, Núñez has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins through the first couple months of this season. Nonetheless, he will eventually come down to earth as the numbers have suggested. For fantasy baseball purposes, folks should not push the panic button and drop him. Instead, everyone should just temper their expectations. Núñez could be a viable backup for many teams once the regression period settles in. Just because his batting average is projected to decrease, does not mean he will end up being a .230/.240 hitter. If anything, he will revert to his career average, which is very respectable. I would not be surprised if he set a career high with something around .280's with his new, more balanced approach at the plate. And just because he is not projected to club a boat load of long balls, does not mean he will not hit anymore four baggers for the rest of the season. I do not believe he will reach the 20's, but he could hit around 15 homers. Most of the rest-of-season projections give Núñez about 5–8 more big flies, which I think is fair. Despite his solid OBP of .355, I would not play him if you are in an OBP league because that is bound to decline, especially with his current BB% of 2.8%. He also has the potential to collect 20–25 steals this season, as he already has 12 so far. Núñez will not be a strong option for RBI's and runs due to his anemic supporting cast, but with a .270–.280 batting average, 15–17 home runs and 20+ steals Núñez could give an extra boost to your bench.
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