Here is my latest article for DRaysBay on Jake Odorizzi and his four-seam fastball this season. Enjoy!!
http://www.draysbay.com/2016/9/16/12913948/jake-odorizzi-terrible-yet-effective-fastball
Friday, September 16, 2016
Wednesday, August 31, 2016
My DRaysBay Article on Drew Smyly and a Major Announcement
I recently wrote a FanPost for the SB Nation blog "DRaysBay" this week on Drew Smyly and his new approach to right-handed hitters that made the front page of the blog!! If you would like to read my piece, here is the link to the article.
As for the major announcement, I am excited to announce that I have been hired by DRaysBay as a writer!! As a writer for DRaysBay, I will continue to write blog posts similar to the one I wrote on Smyly and the ones that I have posted on this blog. I am looking forward to the experience of writing about Major League Baseball at the professional level!!
As for the major announcement, I am excited to announce that I have been hired by DRaysBay as a writer!! As a writer for DRaysBay, I will continue to write blog posts similar to the one I wrote on Smyly and the ones that I have posted on this blog. I am looking forward to the experience of writing about Major League Baseball at the professional level!!
Wednesday, August 17, 2016
The Descent of Will Harris and the Rise of Ken Giles into the Astros' Closing Role
Prior to opening day of the 2016 season, the Houston Astros' closer position was a murky situation. The team acquired the righty flamethrower Ken Giles from the Philadelphia Phillies during the offseason to close games, even though the organization signed now-32-year-old reliever Luke Gregerson the offseason prior to that to a 3-year $18.5 million dollar contract to close games for the team. Nonetheless, Houston ultimately chose to stick with Gregerson who saved 31 ballgames to the tune of a 3.10 ERA in 2015.
Since then, the backend of the bullpen has been like a game of musical chairs. Gregerson lost the closer gig at the beginning of June after a blowing two saves to start the month as well as three more in May. Gregerson has struggled with his control all season with his control as shown by his 2.68 BB%, which is up over a full point from last years rate.
At the same time Giles was also struggling out of the gates, so Will Harris was the next man up. He also had some hiccups during his tenure and eventually lost the job this past week. And then the baton was passed on to Giles, who finally got his hack at the role, looked to be settling in well before his recent placement on the paternity list.
So in Giles' brief absence, Harris will be closing games again for the Astros, but once Giles returns he should be the man again in Houston ... hopefully ... maybe ... I don't know, honestly. At this rate of volatility, Houston will probably have Orbit shutting the door down for the squad. Hey, laugh all you want, but the big-bellied green fella has quite the nasty hook.
Harris's recent troubles on the mound certainly has been perplexing to Astros fans, especially because of the dominant season he had in 2015. But when we dive into the advanced statistics, Harris was bound for some regression heading into this season. I mean, his .192 BABIP and 87.4% LOB% were unworldly, and both have adjusted themselves rightfully this season to .299 and 76.9%. Opposing batters' wOBA against the shift is up from .152 to .278 from last season and their wOBA with men on base increased from .184 to .241. His batted ball metrics also shifted, with his Soft% dropping from 21.1% to 14.7% and his Hard% elevating from 27% to 33.1%.
Through the first two months of 2016, Harris picked up right where he left off in 2015. He posted a ridiculous 0.38 ERA, surrendering only one run in 23.2 innings. But then the calendar turned to June, and Harris was named the closer of Houston and his performance began to dip. Since then, he owns a 5.09 ERA through 23 innings pitched and even though the ERA was bloated somewhat when he was tagged for four runs against the Oakland Athletics back on July 8, Harris still has not been the same shutdown reliever.
Harris is a two-pitch hurler, throwing a cutter and a curveball. He throws his cutter about 70% of the time and the other 30% goes to his curveball, and those percentages are relatively the same towards right-handed and left-handed batters. Through the first two months of the season, batters only hit a scarce .175 against his cutter and .143 against his curve, according to Brooks Baseball. But of course as stated above, Harris' luck eventually ran out. From June on, batters hit a robust .321 against his cut fastball and an improved .257 against his curve. So what specifically changed in Harris' game that allowed opposing batters to have more success against the 31-year-old? Let's take a deeper look.
From June to August 12, righties have pummeled Harris' breaking ball with a gaudy .368 average. Prior to June, Harris, being the ground ball pitcher that he is, was inducing 87.50 GB/BIP on the breaking pitch. Over the next three months, that rate dropped to 53.33 and his LD/BIP leaped from zero to 26.67.
Harris has done a great job at getting righties to chase his curveball down and away all season. However, Harris has had a slight propensity to hang the pitch in the middle of the strike zone through both April and May as well as June through August. Here is a heatmap per FanGraphs of opponent's batting average against Harris' curve through the first two months of the season:
Limited success, indeed. But now take a look at the heat map through the three months after:
A whole lotta red this time. Batters definitely have been staying back more and capitalizing on those hangers as the season has progressed.
Aside from crushing his curveball, righties have also been handling Harris' cutter much better. Since June, righties have augmented their batting average against the pitch to .281. His GB/BIP of 51.58 is 16.84 points lower from the first two months and his LD/BIP of 29.63 is 19.10 points higher.
Harris is still handling left-handers well with his curveball at this point in the season, but lefties have figured out his cutter. Lefties are mashing the pitch as shown by their .381 AVG, .714 SLG and .333 ISO.
He was doing an excellent job in dotting lefties with the backdoor cutter throw April and May, but over the next three months those cutters started to leak more over the plate where lefties have hit them hard as shown by this graph from BaseballSavant:
While Harris had a more fruitful beginning to the season, Giles had a lackluster start to 2016. In the month of April, the flame-throwing righty owned a 9.00 ERA (3.20 xFIP), serving up ten runs in ten innings of work while also surrendering four home runs. However, the months after Giles sported a sparkling 2.23 ERA (2.36 xFIP) while only allowing one long ball and lowering his season ERA to 3.69 (2.54 xFIP).
What has plagued Giles's woes this season is his four-seam fastball. Opposing batters have been clubbing his heater to the tune of a .381 AVG and a .196 ISO. Giles' -8.3 wFB is not only far worse than last years value of 3.4, but also it is the fourth worst value among relievers, only trailing Gonzalez Germen (-10.1), Mark Lowe (-9.7) and Ross Ohlendorf (-9.4).
As the season has progressed, Giles has added a few ticks to his fastball, which has contributed to a slight increase in his whiff rate. But for a rising four-seamer that averages around 97 to 98 mph for his career, the whiff rate on the pitch this season is just 8.24%. That is because while righties are whiffing at his fastball at a rate of 10.90%, lefties are only whiffing at a rate of 5.88%, which ties into the next segment on Giles.
Giles has suffered through a .364 BABIP all season, including a .425 BABIP off his fastball. Although it is a limited sample size (203 total batters faced), the numbers are still glaring. While some tough luck may be involved, there is a far greater factor at play here. Hitters are batting .373 against the shift when Giles is on the bump in 2016. Again, it is another limited sample (59 total batters faced), but still it is a noteworthy stat. The reason behind this is that lefties are hitting the baseball to the opposite field 13% more of the time this season (36.9% Oppo%), so they are beating the shift more often for base hits. And what is allowing them to do this is Giles' iffy command of his fastball this year. Just take a look at this heatmap:
At times he has been stellar at hitting the outside edge of the plate as well as the knees of opposing lefties, but some of those fastballs have found a little too much of the outer half of the plate. And while lefties have done their damage predominantly on the inner half, they have still hit that outside pitch well and are shooting it the other way to beat the shift.
Of course, if Giles now owns the closer job he must be doing something well. That something happens to be his second pitch of his repertoire, his slider. To say Giles' slider has been filthy this season would be an understatement. The breaking pitch has generated a whiff rate of 33.71% that has grown over the course of this season:
Since then, the backend of the bullpen has been like a game of musical chairs. Gregerson lost the closer gig at the beginning of June after a blowing two saves to start the month as well as three more in May. Gregerson has struggled with his control all season with his control as shown by his 2.68 BB%, which is up over a full point from last years rate.
At the same time Giles was also struggling out of the gates, so Will Harris was the next man up. He also had some hiccups during his tenure and eventually lost the job this past week. And then the baton was passed on to Giles, who finally got his hack at the role, looked to be settling in well before his recent placement on the paternity list.
So in Giles' brief absence, Harris will be closing games again for the Astros, but once Giles returns he should be the man again in Houston ... hopefully ... maybe ... I don't know, honestly. At this rate of volatility, Houston will probably have Orbit shutting the door down for the squad. Hey, laugh all you want, but the big-bellied green fella has quite the nasty hook.
Harris's recent troubles on the mound certainly has been perplexing to Astros fans, especially because of the dominant season he had in 2015. But when we dive into the advanced statistics, Harris was bound for some regression heading into this season. I mean, his .192 BABIP and 87.4% LOB% were unworldly, and both have adjusted themselves rightfully this season to .299 and 76.9%. Opposing batters' wOBA against the shift is up from .152 to .278 from last season and their wOBA with men on base increased from .184 to .241. His batted ball metrics also shifted, with his Soft% dropping from 21.1% to 14.7% and his Hard% elevating from 27% to 33.1%.
Through the first two months of 2016, Harris picked up right where he left off in 2015. He posted a ridiculous 0.38 ERA, surrendering only one run in 23.2 innings. But then the calendar turned to June, and Harris was named the closer of Houston and his performance began to dip. Since then, he owns a 5.09 ERA through 23 innings pitched and even though the ERA was bloated somewhat when he was tagged for four runs against the Oakland Athletics back on July 8, Harris still has not been the same shutdown reliever.
Harris is a two-pitch hurler, throwing a cutter and a curveball. He throws his cutter about 70% of the time and the other 30% goes to his curveball, and those percentages are relatively the same towards right-handed and left-handed batters. Through the first two months of the season, batters only hit a scarce .175 against his cutter and .143 against his curve, according to Brooks Baseball. But of course as stated above, Harris' luck eventually ran out. From June on, batters hit a robust .321 against his cut fastball and an improved .257 against his curve. So what specifically changed in Harris' game that allowed opposing batters to have more success against the 31-year-old? Let's take a deeper look.
From June to August 12, righties have pummeled Harris' breaking ball with a gaudy .368 average. Prior to June, Harris, being the ground ball pitcher that he is, was inducing 87.50 GB/BIP on the breaking pitch. Over the next three months, that rate dropped to 53.33 and his LD/BIP leaped from zero to 26.67.
Harris has done a great job at getting righties to chase his curveball down and away all season. However, Harris has had a slight propensity to hang the pitch in the middle of the strike zone through both April and May as well as June through August. Here is a heatmap per FanGraphs of opponent's batting average against Harris' curve through the first two months of the season:
Limited success, indeed. But now take a look at the heat map through the three months after:
A whole lotta red this time. Batters definitely have been staying back more and capitalizing on those hangers as the season has progressed.
Aside from crushing his curveball, righties have also been handling Harris' cutter much better. Since June, righties have augmented their batting average against the pitch to .281. His GB/BIP of 51.58 is 16.84 points lower from the first two months and his LD/BIP of 29.63 is 19.10 points higher.
Harris is still handling left-handers well with his curveball at this point in the season, but lefties have figured out his cutter. Lefties are mashing the pitch as shown by their .381 AVG, .714 SLG and .333 ISO.
He was doing an excellent job in dotting lefties with the backdoor cutter throw April and May, but over the next three months those cutters started to leak more over the plate where lefties have hit them hard as shown by this graph from BaseballSavant:
What has plagued Giles's woes this season is his four-seam fastball. Opposing batters have been clubbing his heater to the tune of a .381 AVG and a .196 ISO. Giles' -8.3 wFB is not only far worse than last years value of 3.4, but also it is the fourth worst value among relievers, only trailing Gonzalez Germen (-10.1), Mark Lowe (-9.7) and Ross Ohlendorf (-9.4).
As the season has progressed, Giles has added a few ticks to his fastball, which has contributed to a slight increase in his whiff rate. But for a rising four-seamer that averages around 97 to 98 mph for his career, the whiff rate on the pitch this season is just 8.24%. That is because while righties are whiffing at his fastball at a rate of 10.90%, lefties are only whiffing at a rate of 5.88%, which ties into the next segment on Giles.
Giles has suffered through a .364 BABIP all season, including a .425 BABIP off his fastball. Although it is a limited sample size (203 total batters faced), the numbers are still glaring. While some tough luck may be involved, there is a far greater factor at play here. Hitters are batting .373 against the shift when Giles is on the bump in 2016. Again, it is another limited sample (59 total batters faced), but still it is a noteworthy stat. The reason behind this is that lefties are hitting the baseball to the opposite field 13% more of the time this season (36.9% Oppo%), so they are beating the shift more often for base hits. And what is allowing them to do this is Giles' iffy command of his fastball this year. Just take a look at this heatmap:
Of course, if Giles now owns the closer job he must be doing something well. That something happens to be his second pitch of his repertoire, his slider. To say Giles' slider has been filthy this season would be an understatement. The breaking pitch has generated a whiff rate of 33.71% that has grown over the course of this season:
His slider has a weighted value of 8.7 that ranks this time fourth-best among relief pitchers behind Dellin Betances' "slurve" (14.5), Kyle Barraclough (9.9) and Alex Colome (8.8). Its O-Swing% is nearly up 5% from last year to 53.3% mark this season. Its O-Contact% has dropped 11% down to 20%, and its overall Contact% is down approximately 16% to 36.5%. Its SwStr% is about 9% more currently at 33.9%. Clearly, it is a beast. When used in the right situations, the pitch has helped make his fastball look better. It also has helped Giles escape jams like the one below against the Chicago White Sox in May as shown by his 81.3% LOB% after the month of April:
Since becoming the team's closer, Giles is one-for-one in save opportunities, but still has looked a tad shaky from time to time, even though he has only allowed one earned run since earning the job. He will need to straighten out his command issues with his fastball if he wants avoid the hairy situations in the 9th innings. And if he does so, combining that with his already filthy slider will finally give the Astros the shutdown closer they have been seeking that they can rely on down the stretch.
Tuesday, July 5, 2016
Carlos Beltran's Tribute Season to Raúl Ibañez
Carlos Beltran has been the New York Yankees' first-half MVP. Plain and simple. He leads the team in WAR (1.6) and wRC+ (138). He is the club's top run producer, as he leads all Yankees with 53 runs batted in (15 more than the next highest total). His Offensive Runs Above Average of 13.5 is nearly five times higher than the next qualified hitter in Brett Gardner, who sports an average of 2.8. He is the squad's leader in home runs with 19, which by the way is the same amount of taters he swatted all of last season.
The Yankees' offense has been lackluster to put it kindly. New York ranks in the bottom third of the league in terms of team ISO, BABIP (second-worst to the Los Angeles Dodgers), wOBA, wRC+ and Off. Yeah, it's been a bit of a teeth gnasher for the Yankee fanbase so far.
Yet the Bronx Bombers are just a few games under .500 and are are still hanging around in the American League Wild Card hunt. And Beltran has been the lord and savior of this stale offense.
What is most impressive about Beltran's 2016 season is the fact that he is stuffing the stat sheet at such an advanced age. Certainly the talk of the town has centered around David Ortiz's immaculate swan song at 40 years of age, and there has been a fair amount of chatter surrounding the 37-year-old Victor Martinez being an AL Comeback Player of the Year candidate. However, with the numbers he is posting this season, a 39-year-old Beltran has unquestionably established himself as one of the top "senior citizen" sluggers of the game.
It is seasons like the one Beltran is currently enjoying that got me thinking the other great offensive seasons by hitters in their twilight years and how Beltran's first-half performance stacks up with those past seasons. The first one that came to my mind was a former Pinestriper, Raúl Ibañez, who had one of the more incredible power campaigns for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009 at such a late age (37-years-old).
I took a look at Ibañez's power metrics as well as some of his standard and advanced offensive statistics from that season. I then compared them to Beltran's stats this season and wouldn't you believe it:
The Yankees' offense has been lackluster to put it kindly. New York ranks in the bottom third of the league in terms of team ISO, BABIP (second-worst to the Los Angeles Dodgers), wOBA, wRC+ and Off. Yeah, it's been a bit of a teeth gnasher for the Yankee fanbase so far.
Yet the Bronx Bombers are just a few games under .500 and are are still hanging around in the American League Wild Card hunt. And Beltran has been the lord and savior of this stale offense.
What is most impressive about Beltran's 2016 season is the fact that he is stuffing the stat sheet at such an advanced age. Certainly the talk of the town has centered around David Ortiz's immaculate swan song at 40 years of age, and there has been a fair amount of chatter surrounding the 37-year-old Victor Martinez being an AL Comeback Player of the Year candidate. However, with the numbers he is posting this season, a 39-year-old Beltran has unquestionably established himself as one of the top "senior citizen" sluggers of the game.
It is seasons like the one Beltran is currently enjoying that got me thinking the other great offensive seasons by hitters in their twilight years and how Beltran's first-half performance stacks up with those past seasons. The first one that came to my mind was a former Pinestriper, Raúl Ibañez, who had one of the more incredible power campaigns for the Philadelphia Phillies in 2009 at such a late age (37-years-old).
I took a look at Ibañez's power metrics as well as some of his standard and advanced offensive statistics from that season. I then compared them to Beltran's stats this season and wouldn't you believe it:
Look at how similar their season outcomes are!! Okay, the counting stats, with the exception of the long ball, have some larger discrepancy. But look at the rate stats and how close they are to each other, particularly both of their ISO's and ground ball and home run to fly ball ratios. Beltran is exhibiting nearly identical power skills so far this year as Ibañez did during the 2009 season.
Both of these thumpers had similar storylines heading into these incredulous seasons. After smacking a career-best 33 home runs with an ISO of .227 for the Seattle Mariners in 2006, Ibañez's saw his ISO dip to the high .180's in 2007 and 2008. Now that he was in his late 30's, everyone figured Ibañez had officially hit the decline phase of his career when he signed with the Phillies. Instead he had a career year in Philadelphia with 34 dingers and a .280 ISO.
For Beltran, the thread was not only about him getting older, but also his body was breaking down fast. In 2014, Beltran's first year with the Yankees, he had bone spurs and loose bodies surgically removed from his right elbow, which contributed to a 30-point drop in his ISO from 2013. In 2015, he made some strides and put those 30 points back onto his ISO, but Beltran was still pestered by the injury bug. This season, healthy at last, Beltran is taking a page out of Ibañez's book by defying Father Time while also doing his best Benjamin Button impersonation by harking back to his best offensive seasons with the New York Mets.
Probably the most significant difference that can be drawn between these two hitters and these two seasons is that Ibañez bats lefty while Beltran is a switch hitter ... or so we would think. We would assume Beltran would have the advantage in platoon splits, but in fact both players have very similar platoon splits. Both batters have higher batting averages against lefties than righties. Just take a look at their advanced platoon splits stats:
And here is Beltran advanced platoon splits stats:
Of course, Beltran's sample size is much smaller, so there is a possibility for these rates to regress. But in the mean time, look at how ridiculously close these splits are!! Aside from their BABIP's, these platoon splits are almost spitting images of each other.
Now, we must keep in mind that Ibañez did the majority of his assault in the first half of the 2009 season and then cooled of considerably in the second half. When diving deeper into Beltran's batted ball profile this season, we do see a few signs that point towards regression in the ISO and BABIP departments. One, Beltran is running a high infield fly ball rate of 12.8 (Ibañez only had a 4.3% IFFB% in 2009). Two, he is hitting more ground balls this season and hitting a high rate of fly balls, and these types of batted balls go for less hits than line drives. Speaking of line drives, only 17.8% of Beltran's batted balls go for line drives this season, which is down from last season's LD% of 21.6%. Three, he is hitting the baseball hard at an above average rate of 35%, but not at an extremely high rate. Beltran is hitting the ball with medium contact for the most part this season, which will make it more difficult for all of those fly balls he is hitting to travel farther distances.
One positive is that Beltran is hitting well against the shift this season (.342 AVG, .336 BABIP) because he does such a great job spraying the baseball to all fields. Nonetheless, besides all of the data presented above, the fact that Beltran is indeed 39-years-old will more than likely be the reason for any sort of diminishment in his stats. As long as the Yankees plan on holding onto their slugger at the trade deadline, they will be relying heavily on Beltran to be the catalyst of their frail offense. An increased workload plus old age will make it quite challenging to keep producing these numbers. For now though, Beltran's output so far this season is very reminiscent to one of the best offensive resurgent seasons in recent MLB history for a player in their late 30's. And the Yankees should take advantage of it while it lasts.
Monday, June 27, 2016
Jay Bruce is Back and Better Than Ever
It has been without question that the talk of the town in Cincinnati this year has been the Reds' outfielder Adam Duvall and his 21 first-half home runs. Zach Cozart has certainly raised some eyebrows with his sudden power surge as supported by an ISO of .216 that ranks in the top 5 at the shortstop position. On the negative spectrum, the early-season offensive struggles of first baseman Joey Votto have been the source of some of the groans and moans emitted from the stands at Great American Ball Park.
But where has been the love for Jay Bruce? The 29-year-old right fielder is having a major rebound year. He leads all major league outfielders with 58 runs batted in and ranks fourth overall out of all major league hitters. His monstrous ISO of .302 is second third-best among qualifying outfielders with at least 200 plate appearances, just behind Duvall and St. Louis Cardinals' Brandon Moss.
Even though Duvall has him beat in the ISO and home run categories, Bruce tops his teammate in other advanced statistical categories. His wOBA of .375 tops Duvall's .358. Bruce's wRC+ of 134 bests Duvall's 122. Just to add more icing to the cake, Bruce leads the Reds in runs scored with 44 (three more than Cozart).
All of the numbers are significant improvements from last season, and some are on pace to be career highs for the lefty. Bruce is not just having a bounce-back season, however. In fact, he is performing astronomically better than he was in the past two seasons. Just take a look at this graph from FanGraphs showing Bruce's season wOBA throughout his career.
After an abysmal 2014 season with a wOBA of .288, the average began to rise steadily after 2015 to the point where it has dramatically increased to where it is now at .375. So what could be the culprit of this?
Certainly we would have to factor in that Bruce is striking out far less. From 2014 to 2015, his K% has dropped from 27.3% to 22.3% and his SwStr% fell from 13.3% to 11.1%. These trends have also carried over into the 2016 season where his K% and SwStr% stand at 20.9% and 10.8%, respectively.
Bruce's propensity to swing outside of the strike zone has dipped over the past couple seasons. His O-Swing% has fallen from 33.1% to 28.2% from 2014 up until this season thus far.
It is obviously wonderful to see a guy who was not too long ago one of the top sluggers in the National League rekindle the magic he had at the plate back then. For the more statistic-driven fan, the sight of the elevation of wOBA is salivating. However for the average fan, the fact that Bruce has regained his 30-homer power stroke is just as juicy.
With his 17 taters as we reach ever closer to the All Star Break, Bruce is well on his way to eclipsing his fourth 30-home run season of his career. Bruce clubbed his 17th bomb yesterday against the San Diego Padres as shown in this clip:
But where has been the love for Jay Bruce? The 29-year-old right fielder is having a major rebound year. He leads all major league outfielders with 58 runs batted in and ranks fourth overall out of all major league hitters. His monstrous ISO of .302 is second third-best among qualifying outfielders with at least 200 plate appearances, just behind Duvall and St. Louis Cardinals' Brandon Moss.
Even though Duvall has him beat in the ISO and home run categories, Bruce tops his teammate in other advanced statistical categories. His wOBA of .375 tops Duvall's .358. Bruce's wRC+ of 134 bests Duvall's 122. Just to add more icing to the cake, Bruce leads the Reds in runs scored with 44 (three more than Cozart).
All of the numbers are significant improvements from last season, and some are on pace to be career highs for the lefty. Bruce is not just having a bounce-back season, however. In fact, he is performing astronomically better than he was in the past two seasons. Just take a look at this graph from FanGraphs showing Bruce's season wOBA throughout his career.
After an abysmal 2014 season with a wOBA of .288, the average began to rise steadily after 2015 to the point where it has dramatically increased to where it is now at .375. So what could be the culprit of this?
Certainly we would have to factor in that Bruce is striking out far less. From 2014 to 2015, his K% has dropped from 27.3% to 22.3% and his SwStr% fell from 13.3% to 11.1%. These trends have also carried over into the 2016 season where his K% and SwStr% stand at 20.9% and 10.8%, respectively.
Bruce's propensity to swing outside of the strike zone has dipped over the past couple seasons. His O-Swing% has fallen from 33.1% to 28.2% from 2014 up until this season thus far.
It is obviously wonderful to see a guy who was not too long ago one of the top sluggers in the National League rekindle the magic he had at the plate back then. For the more statistic-driven fan, the sight of the elevation of wOBA is salivating. However for the average fan, the fact that Bruce has regained his 30-homer power stroke is just as juicy.
With his 17 taters as we reach ever closer to the All Star Break, Bruce is well on his way to eclipsing his fourth 30-home run season of his career. Bruce clubbed his 17th bomb yesterday against the San Diego Padres as shown in this clip:
Last season, Bruce did not hit his 17th home run until July 29, so he is about a month ahead of his 2015 pace. His HR/FB rate is at 20%, which for a good home run hitter like Bruce is where it should be. Last year that rate was 13.3%, which was above average, but not elite like the ratios Bruce posted during his 30 home run seasons that were in the 15–20% range.
The increase in the HR/FB rate is probably due to the increase in average batted ball distance and average home run distance this year. According to BaseballSavant, in 2015 Bruce's average batted ball distance was 229 feet and his average home run distance was 388 feet. This season so far Bruce's average batted ball distance is up to 238 feet and his average home run distance is up to 402 feet. So the fly balls are definitely traveling farther off of Bruce's bat in 2016.
Bruce is also hitting the ball harder than ever in his career with a Hard% of 39.8%. He is also hitting more line drives this season (LD% of 23.3%) than last season (LD% of 18.7%).
Not to mention, Bruce is demolishing sinkers this time around, an effective pitch for right handed pitchers to get lefties to chase out of the zone or roll over for a Sunday hopper. When examining Bruce's standardized run linear weight values, his wSF/C stands at 1.30. More impressive is the difference between Bruce's 2015 and 2016 wSF/C. In 2015 the rate was -2.43. That is a whopping difference of +3.37 runs!
In addition to his mashing of sinking fastballs, Bruce has handle fastballs as a whole quite well. He has a wFB/C of 1.26, which has increased nearly a run and a half more from last year. All of these factors above are contributing to an augmented batting average this season for Bruce (.279).
So everything I just mentioned supports the notion that Bruce's offensive prowess has returned. But of course the title of this article states that Bruce is not only back, but also improved. Well lets dive right into it.
For starters, Bruce is hitting much better against left-handed pitching this year. Actually, he is hitting against lefties so well that he is doing it better than against righties. So far this season Bruce is sporting a solid .282 average against lefties, which is 53 points higher than his average against lefties last season. Against righties Bruce is batting a slightly lower average of .272. The majority of his power does come off of righties, and despite the limited number of plate appearances against lefties it is encouraging to see some improvement in that department.
The biggest reason why Bruce has been able to take advantage of left handers this season is his ability to hit pitches breaking away from him. He owns a wSL/C of 1.87 and a wCT/C of 1.62.
Aside from his platoon splits, Bruce has been a menace on the road in 2016. Bruce is batting a robust .320 away from Cincinnati this season, compared to his .217 road average a year ago. His is also striking out less when traveling (K% of 16.3) and has a higher ISO (.312) than at home.
I am not entirely sure what could be the cause of this. I checked the Park Factors according to ESPN.com of each of the road stadiums the Reds have played in so far this season and with the exception of a pair of series at Coors Field and Progressive Field, the team has not played in many favorable park effects. This then bodes well for his stellar performance on the road as well as his excellent HR/FB rate mentioned earlier. No matter what, his success outside his home ballpark now complements his gaudy power numbers at Cincinnati.
Shifts took a major tole on Bruce's offensive production in 2015. He only hit to the tune of .177 against ground balls that year, so the shift monster without a doubt gobbled up some base hits from Bruce. That clip has jumped up to .227, which in return has increased is average against the shift by 10 points to .272. In order to combat the shift, Bruce has made slight alterations to his approach at the plate this season. He has been driving the ball more up the middle in 2016, as his Cent% has grown from 30.4% to 38.4%.
With Bruce not only reverting back to offensive juggernaut ways, but also adding more to his bag of tricks the Reds have a big-time bopper in the clean up spot of the order to rack up runs and to complement the bats of Votto and Duvall. More importantly, Reds general manager Dick Williams now has a more balanced slugger that he can dangle in front of the mouths of the other major league general managers. Bruce will be one of the top commodities as the trade deadline creeps closer. He will be a tantalizing piece for teams with playoff aspirations to plug into the middle of their lineups. Especially with Bruce's unbelievable Clutch score of 1.83 teams, Williams' cell phone will be blowing up with calls from other teams. But at the moment, the Reds are just enjoying reaping the benefits of their right fielder's thunderous bat.
Saturday, June 18, 2016
Adam Jones is Starting to Turn the Page
The Baltimore Orioles' offense has been flying high through the first three months of the 2016 season. The club is averaging 4.8 runs per game and own a team wRC+ of 105, both rank seventh in Major League Baseball, respectively.
If there was a song that epitomized this offense, it would have to be "Bye Bye Birdie." Baltimore leads the league in long balls with 104 and in ISO with a stellar mark of .196. The Oriole sluggers have certainly benefited from the hitter-heaven confines of Camden Yards, however they have dispersed their power production evenly thus far. In fact, Baltimore has hit the same amount of home runs on the road (52) than at home (52). Not to mention, the Orioles' lineup has hit for a better ISO away (.206) than in Baltimore (.187).
The trio of Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis have led the hit parade for the Orioles, demolishing 53 home runs, driving in 132 RBI and scoring 135 runs. What might be the most impressive attribute of this juggernaut of an offense is that fact that they have been able to succeed despite their star centerfielder Adam Jones struggling out of the gate.
Through March and April Jones hit a meager .224 with only one dinger (five XBH in total) and seven RBI. His strikeout rate of 20.3% was a little more than a point higher than his career average. His ISO stood at a poor .104.
In May, Jones cut back a little bit on the strike outs and batted an improved .241, coupled with four homers and 16 RBI. Jones actually made an alteration to his approach in that he tried pushing the baseball the other way more. His Oppo% from March and April to May jumped from 13.5% to 22.7%.
However, probably the most significant change in Jones' game was made by manager Buck Showalter on May 27 when he shifted Jones into the leadoff spot. It was the first time the 30-year-old San Diego native hit leadoff in six years. Since then, Jones' offense has taken off with a major resurgence in the power department. In that span, Jones has seen his ISO increase to a gaudy .318 with 8 taters four doubles. His strikeout rate has fallen down to 16.5% as he collected 21 RBI while hitting .284.
While the stats above prove that the shift to the leadoff position has certainly sparked some life in Jones' bat, a closer look into the numbers show that batting at the top spot of the lineup is not the reason for his offensive outburst.
We would think now that Jones is batting leadoff he would see more strikes, specifically early on in the count, because starting pitchers would want to challenge Jones and get him out in order to establish a rhythm early on in the game. In addition, we would expect with the inflation in the number of strikes Jones would be more aggressive at the plate because he would be getting more quality pitches to hit early in the count.
Jones has with out a doubt seen more first strike pitches as his F-Strike% has grown from 63.5% to 71.1% since May 27. At the same time, pitchers overall have not been as assertive as we would have expected in terms of throwing strikes. Jones' Zone% since becoming the team's leadoff hitter has decreased from 46.3% to 41.2%.
Even though he is seeing more first-pitch strikes, Jones' Swing% during 0–0 counts have been mostly average. According to BaseballSavant, Jones has only swung at 47.6% of the first pitches he has seen leading off a game. This rate has remained almost the same in the innings after the first inning. He is also hitting poorly on the first pitch of the at bat with a batting average of .182, which is very uncharacteristic compared to his batting average of .385 on the first pitch prior to hitting leadoff.
It is not until the second pitch where we notice Jones' Swing% rise. In the first inning, he swings at the second pitch at two thirds of the time and this rate remains just about the same in the innings after. Before he Showalter inserted Jones into the leadoff spot Jones hit very well in 0–1 and 1–0 counts, and this trend has continued since the lineup change as Jones is batting .400 in those counts, though pre-leadoff man Adam Jones was clubbing .467 in those counts.
So if in actuality Jones is not seeing more strikes coming his way, and he is not taking advantage of the surplus of first-strike pitches he is being served, and he has already been excelling at hitting the second pitch of the at bat, then what exactly has been the key to Jones' success at the dish as of late?
Well, there are in fact two keys that have led to the elevation of Jones' offensive output. The first is that Jones has been able to lay off pitches below and away and outside of the strike zone, particularly breaking balls.
Here is a heatmap from BrooksBaseball of Jones' percentages of whiffs per swing pre-lead off man:
As we can see, Jones was having some difficulties laying off those pitches in those locations. Now let's take a look at his percentages of whiffs per swing after he became the leadoff man:
There has definitely been some improvement in that department. It may seem as a minor tweak to Jones' game, but it has certainly paid dividends.
By being slightly more disciplined, Jones has been able to work into more favorable hitters counts instead of falling behind and trying to dig his way out of 0–2 or 1–2 holes.
A perfect example of this came on June 12 against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Roger Centre (unfortunately, I could not find a full video of this at bat, so I will give you guys the information the preceded the result of the at bat. Here is a link to the at bat on BaseballSavant to prove this actually occurred).
It was the top of the fifth inning with the Orioles trailing the Blue Jays 7–2. Jones was leading off against arguably Toronto's ace Aaron Sanchez. For the first pitch, Sanchez tossed a curveball underneath the strike zone below and away, Jones' chase spot. Jones did not bit and took the breaking pitch for a ball.
This was significant because for Sanchez's second pitch he threw a two seam fastball at the lower half of the strike zone for a strike. Because Jones laid off the curve, the count drew to 1–1 instead of 0–2, a far more comfortable count for Jones.
And with the next pitch, Jones did this:
Sanchez left the curveball up in the zone and Jones rightly punished it. With the patience against the curveball earlier in the at bat, Jones was able to enter a count that would warrant a better opportunity to receive a good pitch to rake. And this definitely has helped bolster his numbers in these counts. Jones now has two bombs in 1–1 counts since he became a leadoff hitter, whereas he had no home runs prior.
The other key is quite simple: Jones is taking what he is being given. With the drop in Zone% means the centerfielder is seeing more pitches outside the strike zone, and Jones has certainly taken notice. His outside swing percentage since moving up to the top of the lineup has ballooned from 39% to 44.3%.
More intriguing is how Jones' swing rate has shifted along the strike zone. Take a look at this heatmap of Jones pre-leadoff man from FanGraphs.
Now let's look at his heatmap once he started hitting leadoff. Jones has been waving away at those pitches that are mid-in as well as high and inside. And he has not been missing them, as extolled in his current Contact% heatmap.
Just take a gander at this blast off of Kansas City Royals' pitcher Chien-Ming Wang:
As the statistics above have shown, Adam Jones' improvements in the batter's box are the results his own modifications to his plate discipline and aggression, rather than to his ascent to the top spot in the Orioles' batting order. Regardless, this is a plus for Baltimore as they now have another hot bat in their already potent lineup that could use all of the fireworks it can get with the starting pitching troubles they are dealing with.
If there was a song that epitomized this offense, it would have to be "Bye Bye Birdie." Baltimore leads the league in long balls with 104 and in ISO with a stellar mark of .196. The Oriole sluggers have certainly benefited from the hitter-heaven confines of Camden Yards, however they have dispersed their power production evenly thus far. In fact, Baltimore has hit the same amount of home runs on the road (52) than at home (52). Not to mention, the Orioles' lineup has hit for a better ISO away (.206) than in Baltimore (.187).
The trio of Manny Machado, Mark Trumbo and Chris Davis have led the hit parade for the Orioles, demolishing 53 home runs, driving in 132 RBI and scoring 135 runs. What might be the most impressive attribute of this juggernaut of an offense is that fact that they have been able to succeed despite their star centerfielder Adam Jones struggling out of the gate.
Through March and April Jones hit a meager .224 with only one dinger (five XBH in total) and seven RBI. His strikeout rate of 20.3% was a little more than a point higher than his career average. His ISO stood at a poor .104.
In May, Jones cut back a little bit on the strike outs and batted an improved .241, coupled with four homers and 16 RBI. Jones actually made an alteration to his approach in that he tried pushing the baseball the other way more. His Oppo% from March and April to May jumped from 13.5% to 22.7%.
However, probably the most significant change in Jones' game was made by manager Buck Showalter on May 27 when he shifted Jones into the leadoff spot. It was the first time the 30-year-old San Diego native hit leadoff in six years. Since then, Jones' offense has taken off with a major resurgence in the power department. In that span, Jones has seen his ISO increase to a gaudy .318 with 8 taters four doubles. His strikeout rate has fallen down to 16.5% as he collected 21 RBI while hitting .284.
While the stats above prove that the shift to the leadoff position has certainly sparked some life in Jones' bat, a closer look into the numbers show that batting at the top spot of the lineup is not the reason for his offensive outburst.
We would think now that Jones is batting leadoff he would see more strikes, specifically early on in the count, because starting pitchers would want to challenge Jones and get him out in order to establish a rhythm early on in the game. In addition, we would expect with the inflation in the number of strikes Jones would be more aggressive at the plate because he would be getting more quality pitches to hit early in the count.
Jones has with out a doubt seen more first strike pitches as his F-Strike% has grown from 63.5% to 71.1% since May 27. At the same time, pitchers overall have not been as assertive as we would have expected in terms of throwing strikes. Jones' Zone% since becoming the team's leadoff hitter has decreased from 46.3% to 41.2%.
Even though he is seeing more first-pitch strikes, Jones' Swing% during 0–0 counts have been mostly average. According to BaseballSavant, Jones has only swung at 47.6% of the first pitches he has seen leading off a game. This rate has remained almost the same in the innings after the first inning. He is also hitting poorly on the first pitch of the at bat with a batting average of .182, which is very uncharacteristic compared to his batting average of .385 on the first pitch prior to hitting leadoff.
It is not until the second pitch where we notice Jones' Swing% rise. In the first inning, he swings at the second pitch at two thirds of the time and this rate remains just about the same in the innings after. Before he Showalter inserted Jones into the leadoff spot Jones hit very well in 0–1 and 1–0 counts, and this trend has continued since the lineup change as Jones is batting .400 in those counts, though pre-leadoff man Adam Jones was clubbing .467 in those counts.
So if in actuality Jones is not seeing more strikes coming his way, and he is not taking advantage of the surplus of first-strike pitches he is being served, and he has already been excelling at hitting the second pitch of the at bat, then what exactly has been the key to Jones' success at the dish as of late?
Well, there are in fact two keys that have led to the elevation of Jones' offensive output. The first is that Jones has been able to lay off pitches below and away and outside of the strike zone, particularly breaking balls.
Here is a heatmap from BrooksBaseball of Jones' percentages of whiffs per swing pre-lead off man:
As we can see, Jones was having some difficulties laying off those pitches in those locations. Now let's take a look at his percentages of whiffs per swing after he became the leadoff man:
There has definitely been some improvement in that department. It may seem as a minor tweak to Jones' game, but it has certainly paid dividends.
By being slightly more disciplined, Jones has been able to work into more favorable hitters counts instead of falling behind and trying to dig his way out of 0–2 or 1–2 holes.
A perfect example of this came on June 12 against the Toronto Blue Jays at the Roger Centre (unfortunately, I could not find a full video of this at bat, so I will give you guys the information the preceded the result of the at bat. Here is a link to the at bat on BaseballSavant to prove this actually occurred).
It was the top of the fifth inning with the Orioles trailing the Blue Jays 7–2. Jones was leading off against arguably Toronto's ace Aaron Sanchez. For the first pitch, Sanchez tossed a curveball underneath the strike zone below and away, Jones' chase spot. Jones did not bit and took the breaking pitch for a ball.
This was significant because for Sanchez's second pitch he threw a two seam fastball at the lower half of the strike zone for a strike. Because Jones laid off the curve, the count drew to 1–1 instead of 0–2, a far more comfortable count for Jones.
And with the next pitch, Jones did this:
Sanchez left the curveball up in the zone and Jones rightly punished it. With the patience against the curveball earlier in the at bat, Jones was able to enter a count that would warrant a better opportunity to receive a good pitch to rake. And this definitely has helped bolster his numbers in these counts. Jones now has two bombs in 1–1 counts since he became a leadoff hitter, whereas he had no home runs prior.
The other key is quite simple: Jones is taking what he is being given. With the drop in Zone% means the centerfielder is seeing more pitches outside the strike zone, and Jones has certainly taken notice. His outside swing percentage since moving up to the top of the lineup has ballooned from 39% to 44.3%.
More intriguing is how Jones' swing rate has shifted along the strike zone. Take a look at this heatmap of Jones pre-leadoff man from FanGraphs.
Now let's look at his heatmap once he started hitting leadoff. Jones has been waving away at those pitches that are mid-in as well as high and inside. And he has not been missing them, as extolled in his current Contact% heatmap.
Just take a gander at this blast off of Kansas City Royals' pitcher Chien-Ming Wang:
As the statistics above have shown, Adam Jones' improvements in the batter's box are the results his own modifications to his plate discipline and aggression, rather than to his ascent to the top spot in the Orioles' batting order. Regardless, this is a plus for Baltimore as they now have another hot bat in their already potent lineup that could use all of the fireworks it can get with the starting pitching troubles they are dealing with.
Saturday, June 11, 2016
Eduardo Núñez and His Breakout Season in 2016
If you are a New York Yankees fan and if you have been keeping tabs on Eduardo Núñez's overall production through the first two months of the 2016 season with the hapless Minnesota Twins, you have got be thinking to yourself, "Where the hell was this guy when he donned the pinstripes?"
As a Yankee Clipper, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native showed some promise at the dish when he debuted with the club in August 19, 2010 season, which carried over into the 2011 season. Nuni played in a total 112 games that year, splitting time primarily at shortstop as the backup to the Yankee captain Derek Jeter and at third base as the replacement for the injury-plagued Alex Rodriguez. He posted a respectable .265 batting average and exhibited some decent pop with 25 extra-base hits (five dingers, 18 doubles and two triples). Equally as impressive was his presence on the base paths, as he swiped 22 bases while only being caught six times. However, his defensive output could not mirror his offensive output. Núñez committed a lofty 20 errors on the season – 14 at shortstop and six and third base.
Over the next two season, Núñez's professional career in the game of baseball fluctuated between the major and minor leagues with the Yankees, which made it difficult for us to gage his progressions offensively. He was ultimately traded to the Twins on April 7, 2014 for left-handed pitcher Miguel Sulbaran. During his first two years with his new organization, Núñez served as a utility man, playing in 72 games in each of those seasons. After Eduardo Escobar went down with a left groin injury in early May this season, Núñez was inserted into the lineup at shortstop. Since then, Núñez's offensive game has surged to the surprise of many.
Just ask Miami Marlins starting pitcher Adam Conley:
That was a titanic shot!! A third decker from a shortstop! Statcast measured that tater at 438.37 feet and exited at 107.71 miles per hour. Núñez has already set a career high in home runs with nine, and we still have a month of baseball to play before the All Star break. He is currently batting a robust .330, which is good for sixth-best in the majors and has a stellar ISO of .195. He is also on pace to set career highs in several other offensive categories such as doubles, runs batted in and runs scored.
When examining the more advanced metrics, Núñez is a far more productive player this year than last year. He is sporting a wOBA of .375, which is .047 points higher than 2015. His wRC+ has augmented 31 points from last year to where it now stands at 138 this year.
Núñez is vying for his first All Star nomination of his career and is proving to be the most fruitful bat in a Twins lineup that is starving for production. Minnesota currently ranks 27th in Major League Baseball with 226 runs scored and has a terrible Offensive Runs Above Average of -23.5.
But is Núñez's offensive outburst for real or fools gold? When diving deeper into his batted ball profile, it seems Núñez's scorching start will ultimately simmer as the season progresses.
His BABIP of .352 ranks in the top 25 of players with a minimum of 200 plate appearances. While Núñez's BABIP is up their with some of the best sluggers in the game, his current mark is not close to his career mark of .303 (according to FanGraphs) and nowhere near his career batting average of .276. There is no denying it, his batting average is due for some regression.
Núñez's line drive percentage stands at 16.1%, the same as last season and also below the league average of 21%. Since he hits more ground balls and fly balls, Núñez's batting average will more than likely dip since both of which typically go for less hits than line drives do. He is also benefiting from some luck thus far this season, as shown with this lead-off inside the parker against Tampa Bay Rays starting southpaw Matt Moore:
As for the power numbers, they seem to be legit at first glance. Right of the bat we notice Núñez's HR/FB ratio has skyrocketed this from 9.5% to 15%. His ground ball percentage has dropped 8.6 points and his fly ball percentage has increased by 8.6. And top that with the fact that he is hitting the ball harder this season – his Hard% jumped from 24.8% in 2015 to 27.3% this season – it would appear as if Núñez is hitting the ball with authority and in the air and out of the ballpark.
However, there are a couple of statistics that debunk Núñez's jolt in power. One, his infield fly ball percentage, albeit has declined over the past couple seasons, is above the league average at 15%. So he is definitely elevating the baseball, but on several occasions he is over elevating.
Two, Núñez's average exit velocity is only 90.7, which is about a tick, tick-and-a-half above the league average. Even though he might be hitting the ball harder thus far this season, the ball just does not seem to be jumping off the bat.
Three, he is making gradual strides to change his approach this season. Núñez has primarily pulled the ball throughout his career until this season where the numbers have shown that he is starting to drive the ball more towards the opposite field. His Pull% has dropped 4.4 points to 37.2% this season, while his Cent% and Oppo% have increased 0.4 and 4.0, respectively. The fact that Núñez is trying to hit the ball to the opposite field instead of pulling pitches will make it more challenging for him to go deep more often.
All in all, Núñez has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins through the first couple months of this season. Nonetheless, he will eventually come down to earth as the numbers have suggested. For fantasy baseball purposes, folks should not push the panic button and drop him. Instead, everyone should just temper their expectations. Núñez could be a viable backup for many teams once the regression period settles in. Just because his batting average is projected to decrease, does not mean he will end up being a .230/.240 hitter. If anything, he will revert to his career average, which is very respectable. I would not be surprised if he set a career high with something around .280's with his new, more balanced approach at the plate. And just because he is not projected to club a boat load of long balls, does not mean he will not hit anymore four baggers for the rest of the season. I do not believe he will reach the 20's, but he could hit around 15 homers. Most of the rest-of-season projections give Núñez about 5–8 more big flies, which I think is fair. Despite his solid OBP of .355, I would not play him if you are in an OBP league because that is bound to decline, especially with his current BB% of 2.8%. He also has the potential to collect 20–25 steals this season, as he already has 12 so far. Núñez will not be a strong option for RBI's and runs due to his anemic supporting cast, but with a .270–.280 batting average, 15–17 home runs and 20+ steals Núñez could give an extra boost to your bench.
As a Yankee Clipper, the Santo Domingo, Dominican Republic native showed some promise at the dish when he debuted with the club in August 19, 2010 season, which carried over into the 2011 season. Nuni played in a total 112 games that year, splitting time primarily at shortstop as the backup to the Yankee captain Derek Jeter and at third base as the replacement for the injury-plagued Alex Rodriguez. He posted a respectable .265 batting average and exhibited some decent pop with 25 extra-base hits (five dingers, 18 doubles and two triples). Equally as impressive was his presence on the base paths, as he swiped 22 bases while only being caught six times. However, his defensive output could not mirror his offensive output. Núñez committed a lofty 20 errors on the season – 14 at shortstop and six and third base.
Over the next two season, Núñez's professional career in the game of baseball fluctuated between the major and minor leagues with the Yankees, which made it difficult for us to gage his progressions offensively. He was ultimately traded to the Twins on April 7, 2014 for left-handed pitcher Miguel Sulbaran. During his first two years with his new organization, Núñez served as a utility man, playing in 72 games in each of those seasons. After Eduardo Escobar went down with a left groin injury in early May this season, Núñez was inserted into the lineup at shortstop. Since then, Núñez's offensive game has surged to the surprise of many.
Just ask Miami Marlins starting pitcher Adam Conley:
That was a titanic shot!! A third decker from a shortstop! Statcast measured that tater at 438.37 feet and exited at 107.71 miles per hour. Núñez has already set a career high in home runs with nine, and we still have a month of baseball to play before the All Star break. He is currently batting a robust .330, which is good for sixth-best in the majors and has a stellar ISO of .195. He is also on pace to set career highs in several other offensive categories such as doubles, runs batted in and runs scored.
When examining the more advanced metrics, Núñez is a far more productive player this year than last year. He is sporting a wOBA of .375, which is .047 points higher than 2015. His wRC+ has augmented 31 points from last year to where it now stands at 138 this year.
Núñez is vying for his first All Star nomination of his career and is proving to be the most fruitful bat in a Twins lineup that is starving for production. Minnesota currently ranks 27th in Major League Baseball with 226 runs scored and has a terrible Offensive Runs Above Average of -23.5.
But is Núñez's offensive outburst for real or fools gold? When diving deeper into his batted ball profile, it seems Núñez's scorching start will ultimately simmer as the season progresses.
His BABIP of .352 ranks in the top 25 of players with a minimum of 200 plate appearances. While Núñez's BABIP is up their with some of the best sluggers in the game, his current mark is not close to his career mark of .303 (according to FanGraphs) and nowhere near his career batting average of .276. There is no denying it, his batting average is due for some regression.
Núñez's line drive percentage stands at 16.1%, the same as last season and also below the league average of 21%. Since he hits more ground balls and fly balls, Núñez's batting average will more than likely dip since both of which typically go for less hits than line drives do. He is also benefiting from some luck thus far this season, as shown with this lead-off inside the parker against Tampa Bay Rays starting southpaw Matt Moore:
As for the power numbers, they seem to be legit at first glance. Right of the bat we notice Núñez's HR/FB ratio has skyrocketed this from 9.5% to 15%. His ground ball percentage has dropped 8.6 points and his fly ball percentage has increased by 8.6. And top that with the fact that he is hitting the ball harder this season – his Hard% jumped from 24.8% in 2015 to 27.3% this season – it would appear as if Núñez is hitting the ball with authority and in the air and out of the ballpark.
However, there are a couple of statistics that debunk Núñez's jolt in power. One, his infield fly ball percentage, albeit has declined over the past couple seasons, is above the league average at 15%. So he is definitely elevating the baseball, but on several occasions he is over elevating.
Two, Núñez's average exit velocity is only 90.7, which is about a tick, tick-and-a-half above the league average. Even though he might be hitting the ball harder thus far this season, the ball just does not seem to be jumping off the bat.
Three, he is making gradual strides to change his approach this season. Núñez has primarily pulled the ball throughout his career until this season where the numbers have shown that he is starting to drive the ball more towards the opposite field. His Pull% has dropped 4.4 points to 37.2% this season, while his Cent% and Oppo% have increased 0.4 and 4.0, respectively. The fact that Núñez is trying to hit the ball to the opposite field instead of pulling pitches will make it more challenging for him to go deep more often.
All in all, Núñez has been a pleasant surprise for the Twins through the first couple months of this season. Nonetheless, he will eventually come down to earth as the numbers have suggested. For fantasy baseball purposes, folks should not push the panic button and drop him. Instead, everyone should just temper their expectations. Núñez could be a viable backup for many teams once the regression period settles in. Just because his batting average is projected to decrease, does not mean he will end up being a .230/.240 hitter. If anything, he will revert to his career average, which is very respectable. I would not be surprised if he set a career high with something around .280's with his new, more balanced approach at the plate. And just because he is not projected to club a boat load of long balls, does not mean he will not hit anymore four baggers for the rest of the season. I do not believe he will reach the 20's, but he could hit around 15 homers. Most of the rest-of-season projections give Núñez about 5–8 more big flies, which I think is fair. Despite his solid OBP of .355, I would not play him if you are in an OBP league because that is bound to decline, especially with his current BB% of 2.8%. He also has the potential to collect 20–25 steals this season, as he already has 12 so far. Núñez will not be a strong option for RBI's and runs due to his anemic supporting cast, but with a .270–.280 batting average, 15–17 home runs and 20+ steals Núñez could give an extra boost to your bench.
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